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Client stories

Using insight and scenario modelling to drive improvements in patient flow

Digital & Data

What was the challenge?

An NHS Integrated Care Board (ICB), responsible for planning and funding healthcare at the system level, faced significant challenges in aligning patient demand with available capacity. From the point of emergency contact through 111 or 999 calls, through hospital admission and into community care, visibility of patient flow through their care journey was poor. Data was fragmented across multiple providers and systems, leaving leaders with incomplete insights on which to base their commissioning decisions. 

This lack of integration and visibility created multiple challenges: 

  • Patient impact: Patients often experienced unnecessary delays in discharge, increasing overall length-of-stay and risking deconditioning.  
  • Inconsistent evaluation: The ICB regularly planned initiatives to improve patient flow through the system, with no consistent, data-driven way to measure outcomes or understand why others fell short. 
  • Strategic pressure: With the national Model ICB Blueprint calling for stronger, evidence-based commissioning, the organisation needed to move quickly from reactive firefighting, to proactive and strategic planning. 

The ICB required a solution that could: 

  • Provide a single version of the truth of demand across providers and pathways. 
  • Enable scenario modelling to test the impact of improvement interventions, before rollout. 
  • Support strategic, evidence-based decision-making at both system and locality level.

How did we help?

Moorhouse Consulting partnered with the ICB to design and implement a cloud-based Demand and Capacity (D&C) modelling tool. The solution brought together over 50 fragmented datasets into a single, secure, cloud-based repository, creating a unified picture of patient-flow across the system. 

Key features included: 

  • Predictive modelling – Machine learning models built in Python/Azure to forecast discharge pathways, length-of-stay, and future demand. 
  • Scenario testing – Simulation of interventions at service-, provider-, place- and ICB-level, including costed impact analysis. 
  • Intelligent insights – A web-based dashboards using geo-spatial analysis to support insight visualisation at a neighbourhood level, supporting new NHS ambitions around neighbourhood-based care.  

What was the impact?

The programme delivered a step change in the ICB’s ability to plan and commission services effectively: 

  • Improved visibility of patient journeys, from 111/999 calls, through hospital care, to community discharge. 
  • Evidence-based decision-making, allowing leaders to test interventions in advance, forecast their impact, and prioritise investments in initiatives most likely to deliver positive outcomes. 
  • Optimised use of resources, enabling a more accurate match between demand and capacity, delivering the national ambition of care closer to home. 
  • Shared system view that fosters collaboration across providers and stakeholders, reducing siloed decision-making. 
  • Financial clarity, ensuring public funds deliver maximum benefit. 

By aligning with the Model ICB Blueprint, the ICB has moved from reactive planning to strategic, evidence-driven commissioning. This transformation sets the foundation for more sustainable, efficient, and patient-centred care delivery—and positions the ICB as a national exemplar in harnessing data to improve population health outcomes.

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